2009 Prediction: Greater consumer spending through mobile phones

Mobile commerce (m-commerce) stands to benefit from the challenging economic environment, as consumers look for bargains, and as companies search for innovative ways to differentiate themselves, promote their goods and services to a targeted demographic, and make shopping faster and easier. Despite the forecasted economic malaise, 2009 will see the start of an explosion in m-commerce as companies introduce a raft of new m-commerce applications, spanning mobile television, video and news delivery, mobile coupons and ticketing, and new location-aware services.

Outcome: 2009 saw a surge of interest in mobile application, music and video marketplaces, driven in particular by the popularity of the iPhone’s 'App Store', with more than 2 billion downloads as of November 2009. Many large retailers have begun to introduce a multi-channel approach in order to connect a shopper's online and in-store presence, by adopting a range of mobile features to add value to the shopping experience (including mobile catalogues, barcode scanning and automated product comparisons). 

A number of companies reported strong growth in m-commerce in 2009. In particular, eBay reported a significant surge in m-commerce usage; around 6 million people around the world have now installed an eBay application to their mobile phones and 1.5 million purchases were made via eBay's m-commerce application during the Christmas period. Similarly, Motorola reported that 64% of gen-Y shoppers used their mobile phone for shopping-related activities during the 2009 Christmas period. With a number of companies already announcing innovations for 2010, the outlook for m-commerce is looking very positive.

2009 Prediction: Proliferation of cyber safety software

Partly due to the global economic situation, but mainly due to the increasing exposure given to these types of nefarious activities, consumers and businesses will continue to arm themselves with electronic security layers. The cyber security industry may well be one of the few parts of the technology industry that grows during 2009.

Outcome: Cyber security spending has increased significantly in recent years. The 2010 Cybersecurity Watch Survey estimated that IT security spending in 2009 was 42% more than in 2007. This surge has primarily been led by Government as rising attacks have led to increased demand for more advanced cyber security measures. Companies such as McAfee and Symantec have benefited significantly, with Symantec growing from $4.3 billion in 2005 to $5.5 billion in 2009. Importantly, the recent cyber attacks against Google have increased concerns about cyber security and many analysts expect the cyber security market to continue growing in the coming years.

2009 Prediction: Green IT

Expect the ICT industry to devote considerable focus this year to emissions, partly in a bid by companies to differentiate themselves from their competitors, but also in response to an increasingly stringent green regulatory regime.

Outcome: 2009 saw renewed efforts by hardware manufacturers to reduce the environmental impacts of their products through continued focus on driving down power consumption, through more efficient processors, OLED display panels, solid-state drives and other components. Tender documentation has also seen an increasing proliferation of green IT clauses, requiring suppliers to demonstrate their green credentials. Notwithstanding this, the green regulatory environment remains uncertain, with the Federal government's carbon pollution reduction scheme failing to pass the Senate twice in 2009.

2009 Prediction: OLED and 3D TV

It's been a long time in coming, but OLED TVs are finally creeping on to the market.  2009 will see the usual early adopters part with large amounts of cash in order to own OLED TVs as thin as 3mm. 

The market for 3D TVs, however, is still some way off, and will only gain critical mass once viewers can dispense with the need to wear 3D glasses. However, expect a niche uptake of 3D displays in the gaming market during 2009.

Outcome: In 2009, Sony released the first OLED TV on to the Australian market. Retailing for a pricy $6999, its XEL-1 OLED TV features an 11-inch screen and is only 3mm thick. At present, other manufacturers have not yet released OLED TVs, although both Samsung and LG plan to release models during 2010. As the technology becomes more widely available, prices will fall and screens will increase in size, increasing consumer uptake.

As for 3D TVs, 2009 did not see a significant uptake by the public. However, that may change in 2010 with the release of a number of 3D movies such as Avatar (now the highest-grossing film in history) and plans by the major Australian free-to-air television networks to air some 3D programs in 2010.

The year of the tablet PC

Tablet PCs have been available for over a decade now but have experienced limited consumer acceptance for a variety of reasons, including clunky operation and limited functionality. In 2007, only 1.5 million tablet PCs were sold, representing less than 1% of the personal computing market. Despite this, recent advancements in technology have changed the outlook with new tablet PCs – led by Apple’s impending iPad – offering a much more attractive package to consumers.

Prediction: Expect a large increase in sales as consumers become attracted to the combination of screen size, light weight and strong web-browsing capabilities offered by the new generation of tablet PCs. Apple's announcement of the iPad will significantly influence consumers, and a number of other manufacturers are following Apple's lead and introducing tablet PCs in 2010. We predict that tablet PCs will generate around US$1 billion in global sales this year.

SaaS will continue to grow

2009 was a big year for cloud computing, as SaaS uptake increased dramatically over previous years. Consumers, small and medium businesses and even larger organisations have adopted SaaS because it represents a low-cost method to obtain services on-demand. A number of companies have invested heavily in developing the technology further and this has led to significant improvements in the level of customisation available to consumers.

Prediction: We expect to see continued strong growth in the uptake of SaaS for a number of years to come as the architecture underpinning the technology continues to improve. Gartner forecasts that SaaS usage will continue to grow consistently for years to come, and will generate up to US$14 billion in revenue in 2013.

The National Broadband Network will begin to shape the future

The National Broadband Network, announced in 2009, is set to be pivotal in Australia's digital future. It is not just consumer internet that will benefit from the NBN – numerous industries, including media, healthcare, energy, transportation and agriculture all stand to gain from ubiquitous high-speed broadband.

Prediction: While it is still a few years away from becoming operational, greater clarity in the functional and operational design of the NBN will emerge in 2010. As a result, expect to see companies begin positioning themselves with innovative approaches and new business models to ensure they are able to best benefit from the NBN.

VoIP usage will grow significantly

VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) has grown in popularity in recent years primarily due to the low cost of making calls. The growth of WiFi and the increased availability of wireless networks has meant that VoIP services can now be utilised by WiFi capable mobile phones, representing a significant area of potential growth for the VoIP industry.

Prediction: 2010 will see strong growth in the use of mobile VoIP, as consumers begin to utilise its benefits through mobile networks, rather than just as a fixed line service. Some analysts predict mobile VoIP could be worth US$30 billion globally within three years.

Flash memory will make it big

Flash memory is a non-volatile semiconductor memory device that has been around for a number of years now. It offers many benefits over traditional rotating disk hard-drives because it loads faster and is more robust against shocks. Unfortunately, flash memory has been relatively expensive to produce, so its use far has been limited to smaller devices such as memory cards. However, this is beginning to change as the technology improves and the cost differential between flash and rotating disk memory decreases, allowing larger capacity flash devices to be produced.

Prediction: Expect to see a doubling in the overall use of flash memory as a storage solution in 2010 and for the next 2-3 years after, as users start to rely more heavily on flash memory.